Comparative study of Mergers and Acquisitions processes in France and Essay

Comparative study of Mergers and Acquisitions processes in France and in the United States - Essay Example Research results reveal that the M&A transactions are generally cheaper in France than in the US. According to Alkhafaji, by the above ruling it is meant that the financial assets that are used to execute the M&A transactions together with the duration that is required. The only situation that presents the US as being at par with France, as far as the number of person-days needed to execute M&A are concerned, is when there is seen to be a phase (9a) that portends the execution of the Dispute Without Formal Litigation. This is because the person-days are almost the same in France and US. As far as cost is concerned, M&A transactions in America are significantly of exorbitant cost than France. However, Phase 9(b) Dispute with Formal Litigation in France requires more asset input than in US. In this situation, the transaction cost in the US and in France remains equal. Similarly, economic pundits, such as Terrence, point out that there is a dearth of uniformity between the US and Franc e M&A as far as the results for step-time and satisfaction are concerned. The satisfaction for steps that begins with the exchanging of preliminary information during the drafting of ancillary documents is said to be also considerably the same between US and France. Sweet and Larsson observes that the France’s step (9b) Dispute with formal litigation also remains comparably the same to that of the US. However, it is pointed out that in the US, satisfaction remains higher as far as the Dispute without Formal Litigation is concerned.

Crisis intervention centre Essay Example for Free

Crisis intervention centre Essay The need for a crisis intervention centre is in line with the Danville public needs. The society here is facing housing, despondency and declining social welfare amenities. The model crisis centre is a compound unit of physiological, social and economic advisory and counselling services. These services are to help alleviate frustration, the problem of social classes discourse and increased despondency which are resulting to high stress levels which have led to increased mental cases, besides, to create a welfare sense in this society. This will gradually resolve the impeding social-ethnic storms, unemployment and through increased lobbying through this centre, invite social welfare stakeholders to proffer services and amenities to help the victims of various social problems including domestic violence. Model The crisis intervention centre will be an office with qualified crisis management officers. It will be established to foresee, counselling of abused, domestic violence subjects, despondent and homeless people. They will also foresee the implementation of social integration policies in this society as well as networking with reliable social welfare referrals to counter the problem of declining social welfare. They will also work with the local police force to stem crime and advice of social integration so as to help maintain law and order in Danville. This way, the crisis intervention centre will offer professional advice, minimize liability through plans; provide order and options to the health and welfare problems in Danville. The inception of this centre is due to the sad situation in the society of Danville. The objective is to close the gap of increased poverty and social disintegration through enlightening people about their rights and their economic well being and social welfare needs. Operation and networking procedure The purpose of this crisis intervention centre is to counter arising social problems and addressing them urgently. The team of professionals will check and arrest arising emotional or physical health and safety of the members of the society is at risk. Offering referral to health providers in case of a health risk case, violence and chaos in the settlements where people are living, domestic violence and other physical health risk eventualities; also alerting the police and local medics on the same. Objectively, we will be managing the crisis from two perspectives, one; helping the ones affected to survive the crisis and secondly, to build capacity on alleviation of crisis. Building capacity will be aimed at making the society try preventing arising social crisis, build good relationships and co-exist peacefully. We aim at helping the members of the society self-manage arising crisis through knowledge and skills like demonstrating maturity, good decision making, mediation and avoiding trouble. The professionals will have to be ready to work at odd hours and adhere to the principals of the crisis centre quick response initiative. The quick response initiative will be a special unit of the Crisis intervention centre and will be laden with the duty of rushing to rescue and resolve crisis upon calls of distress and so forth. As such, the centre will be networking with the society and the other social welfare stakeholders to safeguard both lives and the health of the society. This plan is evenly collaborative with rising needs of the Danville society and environment. Operating System The centre cannot be run in an empty office, as such; we have a budget which is meant to accommodate various necessities which will enable the dissemination of our objective effectively. We will buy and install an emergency calls receiving centre and a computer system that will support our networks objectives. †¢ An office from which we have counselling and capacity building advisory lessons and one which will house our staff and operating system †¢ A radio communication system to coordinate with each of the professionals and the rapid response unit †¢ A computer system that will support a databank for clients and give immediate referrals to cases †¢ A van to ferry possible critical cases to nearest healthcare facility and also another van to ferry the rapid response unit Crisis intervention We will be managing Danville crisis based on strength of the Danville society perspective and the problem based perspective. Using our resources, liaising with healthcare providers, social welfare stakeholders, society and government to manage and minimize crisis. We also aim at assessing the risks through risk assessment based on social perception and projections on sensitive social issues. Through planning and holding meetings with various members of the society so as to understand the various weaknesses in the society and they can be managed. We will also use all the resources at all levels of the Danville area. Management of the crisis is issue based and we intend to tackle issues through assessment and capacity building. This way we will alleviate the suspect and the conflicting social behaviour. By capacity building we will foster social-environmental change and subsequently stop bad social behaviour like, domestic violence, robberies, mugging, ethnic discontent and related social discords. Capacity building will replace these bad aspects of social behaviour with alternative skills which will benefit the members of the society. Activities like social-economics, education and active participation recreational activities replace the behavior with alternative skills that serve the same function for the individuals with the weaknesses as well as the segments of the society affected or portraying similar bad behavior.

Resource Planning At Hershey Foods Corporation

Resource Planning At Hershey Foods Corporation Enterprise resource planning (ERP) encompasses virtually every facet of information technology (IT); therefore, its implementation is vital to the overall effectiveness of an organizations IT processes. In 2008, the Hershey Foods Corporation was the focus of a study conducted from 1997-2002 during which time Hersheys attempt to implement ERP was a failure. In 1996, Hersheys moved to modernize its hardware and software from legacy systems to a client/server environment by April 1999. The software module implementation was to be outsourced to three software vendors (SAP, Manugistics, and Siebel); however complications delayed the projected switch to July 1999. To bypass the complications, Hershey chose Big Bang ERP implementation but that choice proved fruitless as retailers experienced problems with order fulfillment, processing and shipping. Hersheys warehouse contained sufficient inventory but retailers still received shipments late. During the third quarter of 1999, Hersheys revenu es dropped by 12%. The purpose of this study is to examine the past failure of Hersheys ERP implementation, while reviewing current information and data to determine the effectiveness of Hersheys efforts since 2002. Studying the circumstances that led to Hersheys ERP implementation failure will aid in illustrating the process of ERP implementation in large organizations with focus on the role management plays in ERP success or failure and how these factors can be avoided in the future. Contents Executive Summary 2 Contents 3 Terms of Reference 4 Literature Review 6 Evaluation of Alternatives 10 Recommendations 13 References 15 Terms of Reference Background In 1894, the Hershey Foods Corporation (Hershey) was founded by Milton Hershey as the Hershey Chocolate Company. Hersheys corporate headquarters is located in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Since its founding, Hershey has grown from a one-product company to a multi-billion dollar corporation with sales exceeding $1.41 billion during the first quarter of 2010 (Wahba 2010). After a tumultuous entry into the twenty-first century, Hershey is finally overcoming some of the obstacles that led to a significant decline in sales. Advertising spending was raised significantly during the first quarter of 2010 with plans to increase advertising spending up to 40% throughout the year. The company was one of many that experienced a decline during the global economic crisis but Hersheys strong leadership and conscious efforts to revamp its image has proven effective in boosting sales. Primary focus during 2010 has been on boosting sales for Hersheys Kisses, Kit at, and Twizzlers brands. Increased advertisi ng is predicted to put these products well above the 25-30% range previously forecast (Wahba 2010). Currently, about 85% of Hersheys sales are generated in the U.S., but it has failed to meet the desired outcome in international markets, putting Hershey behind its major competitor, Nestle. When Nestle began sales in emerging markets its sales rose by more than 10% (Wahba 2010). Problem Hershey has a long history of success and failure, mixed with both effective and poor leadership at the top management level. However, one of the companys most memorable failures is its initial attempt to implement ERP. At present, sales are rising amid a rocky economy but Hershey is still rebounding from the stigma of the failed ERP implementation. Reported sales are lowest among its competitors, indicating Hersheys need for improving its production strategies is of the utmost importance. Effective ERP implementation coupled with a strong top management team is one method of improving productivity and increasing sales -both domestic and abroad. Scope of Study By analyzing the past ERP implementation efforts, this study will illustrate how Hersheys production will benefit from an effective ERP solution. Information reviewed during the course of this study includes, but is not limited to, academic journals, corporate reports, past case studies pertaining to the Hershey Corporation, government resources, and print and online library sources. The information obtained during the course of this study aid in fostering an understanding of the relationship between the information system and the external environment, strategy, business processes, structure and culture, and information technology infrastructure of an organization. The outcome of the references reviewed will provide sufficient data to conduct an evaluation of the potential impact implementing ERP has on Hershey. Following the submission of this report, the reader will understand the importance of implementing ERP as a vital component of an organizations IT system, particularly for He rshey and its expanding needs amid the global marketplace. Literature Review When Hershey began planning to implement an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, the companys top management was unaware of the potential pitfalls it would encounter. ERP systems are management information systems that incorporate and automate many of the practices linked to general operations and production of a company, including manufacturing, logistics, distribution, inventory, shipping, invoicing and accounting. An ERP system is integrated with a relational database system that, when implemented effectively, can improve the efficiency of the organizations business processes. However, the process involves extensive employee training and retraining and the development of modified or new work procedures. Due to the cross-functional and extensive nature of the ERP system, all functional departments must be involved in operations and productions. The benefit of an ERP system for Hershey is the systems effectiveness in improving and automating much of the processes linked to the supply chain while improving timelines for shipments. Hershey opted to implement SAP because of its reputation as a leader among IT solutions in the early 1990s. Hersheys initial attempt to implement SAP spanned over three years and was conducted during the companys peak periods. The implementation process was to be completed over a period of time to allow the company to continue production and sales; however, the complications that Hershey faced hindered its productivity and sales. The impact of such a drastic change during the peak sales period created a major setback resulting in a significant loss in profits and sales (Analyzing n.d.). The company maintained full compliance with the vendor during the implementation process. However, the problem stemmed from timing issues. Hersheys choice to implement the change during its peak period provided detrimental to production and sales and put the overall organization at risk. In retrospect, the companys primary errors were related to the timing of the planned implementation and the implications regarding workloads. Based on the companys sales history, Hersheys top management should have been aware of the risks implementing a major solution would have on the organizations processes. The impact was felt at all levels, particular during periods when confectionary products are in highest demand. The companys order processing systems were impacted the most. Retailers complained that orders were not received, were delayed or that the wrong products were received (Stedman 1999). The relationship between Hershey and its customers were bruised and trust was dwindling. The fiasco opened the door for competitors to step in and take up the slack Hershey left in the marketplace. As a result, Hersheys annual sales plummeted and the competitors annual sales soared. When implementing an ERP solution, the initial planning process is most important. Hersheys top management was aware of peak sales periods; therefore, the authorization to proceed with a drastic organization-wide change was the first error. The initial proposal for implementation should have raised red flags among the companys executives, but the plans moved forward and the result was devastating for the company, its customers and employees. The use of IT should yield results opposite of what was achieved at Hersheys. IT, particularly ERP systems, are designed to create barriers to competition, lower the costs of market entry, shorten timelines, speed cash flow, cut out intermediaries, build bridges, and keep the organization better informed than its competitors (Benson and Standing 2002). Technology, in the context of organizations similar to Hershey, can change production, business processes and organizations, including the potential to change and maximize the potential of social structures and interactions (Benson and Standing 2002). When contemplating IT changes the organizations management must pay close attention to the areas of the business that may be impacted by the change. Despite the belief that success in one area of business usually comes at the cost of another, this does not have to be true (Benson and Standing 2002). Understanding the organizations strengths and weaknesses aids in the planning process. Management will then be able to plan for potential obstacles and implement an alternative before complications put the organization at risk. Under the same premise, Hersheys decision to implement SAP was not the problem, poor management and ineffective planning was the companys major problem. Hersheys error was linked to ineffective restructuring of its business processes and the amendments needed to accommodate the companys production during the ERP implementation period. Furthermore, the company pushed to implement a process in 30 months when the typical implementation process averages about four year s. The rapid implementation attempt disrupted the companys normal functioning and created mass confusion and conflict at both an internal and external level. Since [Hersheys] attention was wholly diverted to ERP, it was not possible to rectify the uncertainties that emerged in the business as a result of ERP (Analyzing n.d.). The companys efforts, although limited, were unbalanced. Hershey found it difficult to focus on both the regular processes of conducting business and the ERP implementation. The result was a reduction in sales, irate customers, conflict among employees, and a growing reputation as a vendor that could not be trusted. The situation was worsened at the end of the 30 month period when Hershey realized the implementation was not effective because the ERP systems were not working in full capacity due to some final touches which were not done (Analyzing n.d.). The optimal solution for ERP implementation is to plan the process around an organizations peak periods. If Hershey had begun the implementation process during slow periods, the outcome would have been different. However, the impact of missing final touches would still be an issue. Again, the fault falls to the companys management team, who is ultimately responsible for ensuring that such major changes begin only when the company is least vulnerable. Implementing during slow market periods gives the company the time needed to make the change, to prepare its departments and respective employees for the change, and emerge stronger than before the change was made. Evaluation of Alternatives ERP is a complex process that requires stringent maneuvering and processing within the organization. Prior to beginning the ERP implementation, Hershey should have put more effort into ensuring the success of the process. Hershey should proceed with the process only after researching and planning to ensure that ample time and efforts needed to achieve successful change was possible. Instead, Hershey chose to proceed during a time when its sales were highest and risks were compounded. Most disturbing is that the company was no stranger to implementing IT processes. In the past, Hershey had implemented a CRM solution, so it should have been aware of the complications that can arise. The company simply chose the wrong time to implement the ERP solution, and timing is everything. In the contemporary business world, particular amid a time of rapidly advancing technology, Hersheys main focus should be on maintaining productivity. However, the use of ERP solutions is a must to meet the growing demands of the consumer. Customers want easy ordering options, fast order processing, and rapid order receipt. The ERP system is designed to improve these functions in businesses but for an effective implementation process that will yield the desired results, the company must carefully choose the time for the implementation process -even if that means dividing the process into stages. By segmenting the implementation process, Hershey would meet its objectives of a streamlined IT process while maintaining productive operations and retain satisfied customers. An ERP system can help increase a businesses efficiency, which increases customer satisfaction. Instead of focusing on independent departments for processing and meeting objectives, the ERP system streamlines the process from production to shipping and beyond. Prior to beginning the ERP implementation Hershey should have met with department heads who, in turn, would explain the upcoming processes including how the implementation process would impact production within the company. From there the employees would be knowledgeable in how to handle issues that could arise (e.g. order fulfillment issues, shipping, et al). Overall, the bottom line is to plan accordingly so that the ERP implementation process can be effectively achieved while the organizations regular processes are not negatively affected. Inadequate training is a common factor in ERP implementation failure. Hershey failed to train its employees on how to handle potential changes that would occur during the implementation process, while also preparing for training for the new system. All the way around, management failed. While pre-implementation research and planning is one alternative to effective implementation, the companys management team should have been more diligent in handling its responsibilities for the organization. Therefore, the company should have taken a closer look at its management team to determine where the error originated. The complications originated at the management level creating a domino effect where the companys individual departments were impacted and the customer was left in the cold. In a customer-driven market it is not the product or service that matters most; instead the greatest value rests in how the customer perceives their overall relationship with the company. It is the value factor. The management team should have been aware of the customers view; then it should have approached the implementation process accordingly to ensure the customers needs were not ignored. In retrospective, Hersheys management team should have known, prior to the ERP implementation, how the company would maintain customer satisfaction during the process. Both internal and external factors should have been better analyzed. Hershey failed to analyze the very components that achieve customer satisfaction. Management should have focused its change in a way that would not jeopardize its relationship with current customers, their use of the companys products, and their impression of Hersheys service. The information obtained during the pre-planning phase is more important than the overa ll projected change since this information is a guiding point for successful ERP implementation. Recommendations When Hershey decided to implement an ERP system, it failed to analyze the companys history of peak sales periods and plan the implementation process around the most productive periods. Instead, the company began implementation during its peak period which resulted in overload among its workforce nd complications within production and shipping that led to a significant loss of sales, a tarnished reputation, and a loss of trust among its customers. The decision to implement an ERP system was a good idea but the timing was wrong. Timing is everything, especially when the risks involve not only the organization and its employees but retaining customers. Furthermore, Hersheys management team failed to consider its supply chain management functions and the outcome was chaos within the internal and external processes associated with production, order fulfillment, and shipping. The onset of pre-planning begins with reviewing the companys current balance (Caruso 2007). When management has a v iew of what it takes to keep the organization productive, then the planning phase can begin. When accurate planning is achieved the risks to the organization are minimized. Studies reveal that one of the most common reasons the implementation of change results in failure is linked to unplanned or under planned phases of implementation. Planning is crucial for effective implementation of an ERP system. However, there is no universal single point of failure linked to unsuccessful ERP implementations. In the case of Hershey, however, the causes are directly linked to efforts that are easily remedied: inadequate training, corporate culture, timeline flexibility, and unrealistic expectations. Hershey has since worked hard to ensure the same mistakes are not repeated. Its current management team is more in tune to the needs of all the organizations stakeholders. Adequate training within Hershey has become paramount to all other functions. The companys management team realizes that inadequate training, particularly at the management level, is a leading cause of organizational failure. Now, the company focuses on how to do business differently, rather than training on new computer software. While training for the ERP system was a focus, it was not the predominant focus. Hershey learned the hard way that change had to be made internally before an ERP solution could be effective in streamlining its internal and external processes. Many ERP projects are bound to fail because employees are not trained to handle the factors that come with change. Timeline flexibility is imperative to success, as well. In its subsequent attempts to streamline operations, Hershey worked to ensure t hat the system was fully tested and ready for implementation to avoid negative consequences similar to those the company experienced in 2002.

Can The United States Justify The Civil War :: essays research papers

Can the United States Justify the Civil War The definition of Manifest Destiny reads as: "The belief in the 1840's in the inevitable territorial expansion of the United States, especially as advocated by southern slaveholders who wished to extend slavery into new territories." This explanation was transcribed from the World Book Encyclopedia's dictionary. It is directly evident that from this unbiased statement we can trace the first uprising of a separate group of people yearning to break the newly formed bond of the great United States. Before and during the Mexican War, the people who were pushing for the claimed land once owned by innocent native americans, were always looking for a scapegoat. They needed one way or another, a way to squirm out of taking the blame for the enslaved and murdered Mexican causalities. There was one man, though, who would not let this happen, David Wilmot. David Wilmot was a democrat from Pennsylvania, who was willing to revise the President's bill. In this revision, Wilmot proposed "...neither slavery nor involuntary servitude shall ever exist in any part of the territory...". This was not well liked by the South and eventhough it was given thumbs up many times in the senate, our newly formed country was now bordered by fresh land. The Wilmot Proviso underwent quite a bit of pressure so that compromises could satisfy each side. The Compromise of 1850 was soon to follow but the real catch of the same year was the Fugitive Slave Act. This act was invented so that the slaves of slaveowners, who took them to a slave-free state on a vacation or something, could not escape. In this act, the hardest part to understand, was that the courts were to try to give a fair trial to any runaway slaves. This enfuriated many of the Northern abolitionists who now were going to expand the tracks of the underground railroad to help extend their efforts in the rescue of the runaways. The point of no return, where many people knew for sure that the country would be devided between the north and the south was the ruling on the Kansas Nebraska Act. This act was majorly contributed into by Stephen A. Douglas and probably would never have passed without his consent. The whole idea behind the act that really got to the south was Popular Sovereignty. This so called "specific" rule was none to specific in stating when a territory could decide when they were pro or anti slavverry. The abolitionists were flooding the new territory with their own kind where as the southerners were just moving

Marijuana vs. Alcohol in the United States

Marijuana vs. Alcohol In The United States Marijuana and alcohol are the two most threatening drugs used in America today. Marijuana is the most illicit drug while alcohol is the most abused. Both were illegal during the prohibition but when the constitution was ratified in 1933 alcohol was made legal while marijuana remained illegal. It does not mean that because alcohol is still legal it’s less dangerous than marijuana. Both drugs lead to serious risks and should be taken with caution if used.Marijuana is a mixture of dried, shredded leaves, stems and flowers from a hemp plant better know as Cannabis sativa. Uses of marijuana can be recreational or medical and the earliest recorded uses date from the 3rd millennium BC. (Rudgley,  Ã¢â‚¬Å"The Lost Civilizations†) Tetrahydrocannabinol also known as THC is the chemical responsible for marijuana’s psychological effects. THC stimulates cells in the brain to release dopamine and causes euphoria like feeling. While th e most popular use is for recreational purposes, it is proven that it can help in the medical field also.Even medical marijuana is illegal in most states. Supporters of medical marijuana argue that it can be safe and effective against AIDS, cancer, multiple sclerosis, pain, glaucoma and other conditions. Nonetheless, abusing marijuana can lead to problem with learning, memory and social behavior. It can also interfere with family, work and other activities. But there are many in favor for cannabis like Bob Marley a famous musician and known for his use of marijuana describes in an interview â€Å"Herb is the healing of a nation, alcohol is the destruction†.Alcohol is a central nervous system depressant that is rapidly absorbed from the stomach and small intestine into the bloodstream. Alcohol affects every organ in the body. Individual reactions to alcohol vary and are influenced by many factors such as age, gender, physical condition, how quickly the alcohol was consumed, et c. Alcohol starts to affect the brain within five minutes of being consumed. Drinking alcohol leads to loss of coordination, poor judgment, memory lapses and even blackouts. Alcohol is a drug; so mixing it with any other drug can be extremely dangerous.Drinking excessively over a period of time can cause problems with relationships, money or the law. It can also cause severe health problems and even death. From 2001 to 2005 the U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports on average more than 79,000 deaths per year was caused by excessive alcohol use. (CDC, â€Å"Vital Signs†) Excessive drinking includes binge drinking, heavy drinking and any drinking by pregnant women or minors. On the other hand, the CDC does not have a category for deaths caused by the use of marijuana.Statistically, death directly from marijuana overdose is extremely rare. However, according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting data, there were a total of 1. 5 million drug arrests nationwide in 2011 and out of those arrests around 750,000 were for marijuana alone. (FBI, â€Å"Person’s Arrested†) While both alcohol and marijuana should not be taken with any other drug and getting behind the wheel while drunk or high poses significant risk to everyone. Alcohol is still vastly greater in number when it comes to death than marijuana but then again one is legal while the other one is not.The legalization of marijuana has been an argument for over 70 years. Even though voters helped to legalize the drug in Colorado and Washington, it’s still legal for the rest of the United States. There are many pros and cons for marijuana legalization. For example, it could increase the number of children using the drug if it was legal. Whereas if the drug were to be decriminalized there would be a large reduction of the prison population while saving government costs. Our economy could benefit through taxing marijuana.In 2010, CNBC reported that legalizatio n could make it a $100 billion industry in America depending on how the government would tax on the sale and the distribution of the plant. (Nelson, â€Å"How Big Is the Marijuana Market? â€Å") The possibilities are fascinating but what if alcohol was made illegal. If alcohol were criminalized then hundreds of thousands of people who worked in the business would be out of jobs. Bootlegging and organized crimes would be on the rise. It would surely change the drinking habits of our country and would greatly decrease the number of drinking problems today.Although marijuana is less harmful than other legal drugs, has various medical benefits and legalizing it would bring economic benefits. While alcohol causes numerous deaths a year but if outlawed could lead to more harm than good. Both are very different from each other and possess the potential for unique risks or benefits. In any case, they both should not be taken with any other drug and getting behind the wheel while drunk or high poses significant risk to everyone. Marijuana and alcohol will continue to be the most used and abused drugs in America. Nevertheless they should always be dealt with caution and never be taken for granted.

Deception Point Page 87

â€Å"Anything?† Rachel asked. The pilot let the arm make several complete rotations. He adjusted some controls and watched. It was all clear. â€Å"Couple of small ships way out on the periphery, but they're heading away from us. We're clear. Miles and miles of open sea in all directions.† Rachel Sexton sighed, although she did not feel particularly relieved. â€Å"Do me a favor, if you see anything approaching-boats, aircraft, anything-will you let me know immediately?† â€Å"Sure thing. Is everything okay?† â€Å"Yeah. I'd just like to know if we're having company.† The pilot shrugged. â€Å"I'll watch the radar, ma'am. If anything blips, you'll be the first to know.† Rachel's senses were tingling as she headed for the hydrolab. When she entered, Corky and Tolland were standing alone in front of a computer monitor and chewing sandwiches. Corky called out to her with his mouth full. â€Å"What'll it be? Fishy chicken, fishy bologna, or fishy egg salad?† Rachel barely heard the question. â€Å"Mike, how fast can we get this information and get off this ship?† 104 Tolland paced the hydrolab, waiting with Rachel and Corky for Xavia's return. The news about the chondrules was almost as discomforting as Rachel's news about her attempted contact with Pickering. The director didn't answer. And someone tried to pulse-snitch the Goya's location. â€Å"Relax,† Tolland told everyone. â€Å"We're safe. The Coast Guard pilot is watching the radar. He can give us plenty of warning if anyone is headed our way.† Rachel nodded in agreement, although she still looked on edge. â€Å"Mike, what the hell is this?† Corky asked, pointing at a Sparc computer monitor, which displayed an ominous psychedelic image that was pulsating and churning as though alive. â€Å"Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler,† Tolland said. â€Å"It's a cross section of the currents and temperature gradients of the ocean underneath the ship.† Rachel stared. â€Å"That's what we're anchored on top of?† Tolland had to admit, the image looked frightening. At the surface, the water appeared as a swirling bluish green, but tracing downward, the colors slowly shifted to a menacing red-orange as the temperatures heated up. Near the bottom, over a mile down, hovering above the ocean floor, a blood-red, cyclone vortex raged. â€Å"That's the megaplume,† Tolland said. Corky grunted. â€Å"Looks like an underwater tornado.† â€Å"Same principle. Oceans are usually colder and more dense near the bottom, but here the dynamics are reversed. The deepwater is heated and lighter, so it rises toward the surface. Meanwhile, the surface water is heavier, so it races downward in a huge spiral to fill the void. You get these drainlike currents in the ocean. Enormous whirlpools.† â€Å"What's that big bump on the seafloor?† Corky pointed at the flat expanse of ocean floor, where a large dome-shaped mound rose up like a bubble. Directly above it swirled the vortex. â€Å"That mound is a magma dome,† Tolland said. â€Å"It's where lava is pushing up beneath the ocean floor.† Corky nodded. â€Å"Like a huge zit.† â€Å"In a manner of speaking.† â€Å"And if it pops?† Tolland frowned, recalling the famous 1986 megaplume event off the Juan de Fuca Ridge, where thousands of tons of twelve hundred degrees Celsius magma spewed up into the ocean all at once, magnifying the plume's intensity almost instantly. Surface currents amplified as the vortex expanded rapidly upward. What happened next was something Tolland had no intention of sharing with Corky and Rachel this evening. â€Å"Atlantic magma domes don't pop,† Tolland said. â€Å"The cold water circulating over the mound continually cools and hardens the earth's crust, keeping the magma safely under a thick layer of rock. Eventually the lava underneath cools, and the spiral disappears. Megaplumes are generally not dangerous.† Corky pointed toward a tattered magazine sitting near the computer. â€Å"So you're saying Scientific American publishes fiction?† Tolland saw the cover, and winced. Someone had apparently pulled it from the Goya's archive of old science magazines: Scientific American, February 1999. The cover showed an artist's rendering of a supertanker swirling out of control in an enormous funnel of ocean. The heading read: MEGAPLUMES-GIANT KILLERS FROM THE DEEP? Tolland laughed it off. â€Å"Totally irrelevant. That article is talking about megaplumes in earthquake zones. It was a popular Bermuda Triangle hypothesis a few years back, explaining ship disappearances. Technically speaking, if there's some sort of cataclysmic geologic event on the ocean floor, which is unheard of around here, the dome could rupture, and the vortex could get big enough to†¦ well, you know†¦ â€Å" â€Å"No, we don't know,† Corky said. Tolland shrugged. â€Å"Rise to the surface.† â€Å"Terrific. So glad you had us aboard.† Xavia entered carrying some papers. â€Å"Admiring the megaplume?† â€Å"Oh, yes,† Corky said sarcastically. â€Å"Mike was just telling us how if that little mound ruptures, we all go spiraling around in a big drain.† â€Å"Drain?† Xavia gave a cold laugh. â€Å"More like getting flushed down the world's largest toilet.† Outside on the deck of the Goya, the Coast Guard helicopter pilot vigilantly watched the EMS radar screen. As a rescue pilot he had seen his share of fear in people's eyes; Rachel Sexton had definitely been afraid when she asked him to keep an eye out for unexpected visitors to the Goya. What kind of visitors is she expecting? he wondered. From all the pilot could see, the sea and air for ten miles in all directions contained nothing that looked out of the ordinary. A fishing boat eight miles off. An occasional aircraft slicing across an edge of their radar field and then disappearing again toward some unknown destination. The pilot sighed, gazing out now at the ocean rushing all around the ship. The sensation was a ghostly one-that of sailing full speed despite being anchored. He returned his eyes to the radar screen and watched. Vigilant. 105 Onboard the Goya, Tolland had now introduced Xavia and Rachel. The ship's geologist was looking increasingly baffled by the distinguished entourage standing before her in the hydrolab. In addition, Rachel's eagerness to run the tests and get off the ship as fast as possible was clearly making Xavia uneasy. Take your time, Xavia, Tolland willed her. We need to know everything. Xavia was talking now, her voice stiff. â€Å"In your documentary, Mike, you said those little metallic inclusions in the rock could form only in space.† Tolland already felt a tremor of apprehension. Chondrules form only in space. That's what NASA told me. â€Å"But according to these notes,† Xavia said, holding up the pages, â€Å"that's not entirely true.† Corky glared. â€Å"Of course it's true!† Xavia scowled at Corky and waved the notes. â€Å"Last year a young geologist named Lee Pollock out of Drew University was using a new breed of marine robot to do Pacific deepwater crust sampling in the Mariana Trench and pulled up a loose rock that contained a geologic feature he had never seen before. The feature was quite similar in appearance to chondrules. He called them ‘plagioclase stress inclusions'-tiny bubbles of metal that apparently had been rehomogenized during deep ocean pressurization events. Dr. Pollock was amazed to find metallic bubbles in an ocean rock, and he formulated a unique theory to explain their presence.† Corky grumbled. â€Å"I suppose he would have to.† Xavia ignored him. â€Å"Dr. Pollock asserted that the rock formed in an ultradeep oceanic environment where extreme pressure metamorphosed a pre-existing rock, permitting some of the disparate metals to fuse.†

A Guide to a Painless Undergrad Econometrics Project

A Guide to a Painless Undergrad Econometrics Project Most economics departments require second- or third-year undergraduate students to complete an econometrics project and write a paper on their findings. Many students find that choosing a  research topic  for their required  econometrics  project is just as difficult as the project itself.  Econometrics is the application of statistical and  mathematical theories  and perhaps some computer science to economic data. The example below shows how to use  Okuns law  to create an econometrics project. Okuns law refers to how the nations output- its  gross domestic product- is related to employment and unemployment. For this econometrics project guide, youll test whether Okuns law holds true in America. Note that this is just an example project- youll need to chose your own topic- but the explanation shows how you can create a painless, yet informative, project using a basic statistical test, data that you can easily obtain from the U.S. government, and a computer spreadsheet program to compile the data. Gather Background Information With your topic chosen, start by gathering background information about the theory youre testing by doing a   t-test. To do so, use the  following function:   Yt 1 - 0.4 Xt Where:Yt  is the change in the unemployment rate in percentage pointsXt  is the change in the percentage growth rate in real output, as measured by real GDP So you will be estimating the model:  Yt b1 b2 Xt Where:Yt is the change in the unemployment rate in percentage pointsXt is the change in the percentage growth rate in real output, as measured by real GDPb1 and b2 are the parameters you are trying to estimate. To estimate your parameters, you will need data. Use  quarterly economic data  compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. To use this information, save each of the files individually. If youve done everything correctly, you should see something that looks like this  fact sheet  from the BEA, containing quarterly GDP results. Once youve downloaded the data, open it in a spreadsheet program, such as Excel. Finding the Y and X Variables Now that youve got the data file open, start to look for what you need. Locate the data for your Y variable. Recall that Yt  is the change in the unemployment rate in percentage points. The change in the unemployment rate in percentage points is in the column labeled UNRATE(chg), which is column I. By looking at column A, you see that the  quarterly unemployment rate  change data runs from  April 1947 to October 2002  in cells G24-G242, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Next, find your X variables. In your model, you only have one X variable, Xt, which is the change in the percentage growth rate in real output as measured by real GDP. You see that this variable is in the column marked GDPC96(%chg), which is in Column E. This data runs from April 1947 to October 2002 in cells E20-E242. Setting Up Excel Youve identified the data you need, so you can compute the regression coefficients using Excel. Excel is missing a lot of the features of more sophisticated econometrics packages, but for doing a simple linear regression, it is a useful tool. Youre also much more likely to use Excel when you enter the real world than you are to use an econometrics package, so being proficient in Excel is a useful skill. Your Yt  data is in cells G24-G242 and your Xt  data is in cells E20-E242. When doing a linear regression, you need to have an associated X entry for every Yt  entry and vice-versa. The Xts in cells E20-E23 do not have an associated Yt  entry, so you will not use them. Instead, you will use only the Yt  data in cells G24-G242 and your Xt  data in cells E24-E242. Next, calculate your regression coefficients (your b1  and b2). Before continuing, save your work under a different filename so that  at any time, you can revert back to your original data. Once youve downloaded the data and opened Excel, you can calculate your regression coefficients. Setting Excel Up for Data Analysis To set up Excel for data analysis, go to the tools  menu on the top of the screen and find Data Analysis. If  Data Analysis  is not there, then youll have to  install it. You cannot do regression analysis in Excel without the Data Analysis ToolPak installed. Once youve selected  Data Analysis  from the  tools  menu, youll see a menu of choices such as Covariance and F-Test Two-Sample for Variances. On that menu, select Regression. Once there, youll see a form, which you need to fill in. Start by filling in the field that says Input Y Range. This is your unemployment rate data in cells G24-G242. Choose these cells by typing $G$24:$G$242 into the little white box next to  Input Y Range  or by clicking on the icon next to that white box then selecting those cells with your mouse.  The second field youll need to fill in is the Input X Range. This is the percent change in GDP data in cells E24-E242. You can choose these cells by typing $E$24:$E$242 into the little white box next to  Input X Range  or by clicking on the icon next to that white box then selecting those cells with your mouse. Lastly, you will have to name the page that will contain your regression results. Make sure you have New Worksheet Ply selected, and in the white field beside it, type in a name like Regression. Click OK. Using the Regression Results You should see a tab at the bottom of your screen called  Regression  (or whatever you named it) and some regression results. If youve gotten the intercept coefficient between 0 and 1, and the x variable coefficient between 0 and -1, youve likely done it correctly. With this data, you have all of the information you need for analysis including R Square, coefficients, and standard errors. Remember that you were attempting to estimate the intercept coefficient b1  and the X coefficient b2. The intercept coefficient b1  is located in the row named Intercept and in the column named Coefficient. Your slope coefficient b2  is located in the row named X variable 1 and in the column named Coefficient. It will likely have a value, such as BBB and the associated standard error DDD. (Your values may differ.) Jot these figures down (or print them out) as you will need them for analysis. Analyze your regression results for your term paper by doing  hypothesis testing on this sample t-test. Though this project focused on Okuns Law, you can use this same kind of methodology to create just about any econometrics project.